By Chris Peeks January 26, 2022
House District 40 is an exciting race that I will keep a close eye on in the spring after interviewing a couple of contenders seeking that open seat. Jacob and Julie, two of the four candidates yearning for that office, sat down with me. Both are fascinating individuals. I extended invitations to their opponents but have never received a reply. If they're anything like this tandem, it should be an intriguing contest.
So I thought I would have a little fun with it, and since I don't know anything about the other two, I will have to guess a little bit. Born with a gift of calling political upsets, I have made predictions that other people didn't see coming. "The Prophet," as some called me, doesn't miss a lot, and if I say "you can take that to the bank." Well, you can take it to the bank. I mean, who else thought Buttigege would carry Iowa in 2019, two months before the caucus?
That being said, I decided to examine House District 40 and see what their paths to victory were. Since I know nothing of the other two candidates, I'm just going to pretend they will get 15% of the vote. In this scenario, that leaves, as I believe they are, Jacob and Julie the frontrunners, fighting for the remainder of the vote. Let's look at the two candidates and analyze what roads will lead them to Montgomery.
On paper, Julie, with a wealth of experience, is a strong candidate, as good as it gets. Her resume is impressive. A retired Marine corps officer, a lawyer for the city of Anniston, mom, and wife, she will appeal to voters across every demographic and all age groups. Except for one. Anything less than receiving 50% of the vote would probably be a disappointment. For this outline, however, we're going to pretend that she doesn't and comes in at 49%.
Jacob is an electrifying candidate in the fact he's only 21. He may not have the wisdom yet, but he makes up for it with his unbridled enthusiasm. In some ways, he reminds me of me at that age, all wide-eyed and wanting to change the world. I wish I had been as mature as him, and I might be getting ready for my presidential campaign in 2022.
Jacob has a solid base if he can turn out the 18 to 24-year-olds. In a four-person race, he will get his share of the female vote and the all-critical white male ballot in that area. Jacobs's strategy is to capture around 21% of the electorate and make the runoff. Getting that far is all he should focus on right now. Survive and advance. Figure the rest out when you make it to the next round.
House District 40's significant voting bloc is white males over fifty that retired from the military. They are the key to winning this race. Whoever wins is going to have to carry this demographic. Which candidate has an advantage here? Tough call.
One would think that Julie has the advantage being a retired Marine corps officer, but that isn't always the case. Having served in the Army, I know that enlisted men do not care for officers. Some men are also not fond of females, especially female officers, at least the older ones are not. Julie should do fine with males from 35 to say 50. In this race, though, the above 50 crowd will decide the outcome.
These are the old men that are down there at McDonald's and Hardee's holding Court every morning. They get there at 5:00 a.m., drinking coffee till 11:00, yelling, "by God, somebody's got to do something about this." A hundred of them arrive every sunrise, all over 55. Every man in this crowd is "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore." If they accept Julie, she will win, but what about Jacob?
Well, Jacob has an advantage because he's a male. It is what it is. But I know how those old men are, and they will say, "he's just a kid."They will look at him with contempt, thinking he hasn't been out in the world long enough to know what he's talking about. Just put Jacob in front of them and let him start talking. It won't take any time for those white-haired men to forget how young Jacob is when they're listening to him.
There you have it, folks. Each of them has different paths to Montgomery, but both of these routes lead to the one road that will take them to the State House, and that is the over 50 white male vote. Julie has just got to keep her people concentrated and make sure they turn out. Jacob, on the other hand, has got to run it up with 18 to 24-year-olds. I mean, get them out in numbers unseen before. Then fire those old men up and get them to the polls. I hope you enjoyed this little hypothetical analysis. Let's see how it turns out in May. Thanks for reading. And good luck to Julie and Jacob!
Chris Peeks
Reporter and Columnist
Alabama Political Contributor
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