By Christopher M Peeks October 18th, 2024
Benjamin Franklin, perhaps the most famous American statesman, possessed the wisdom of an owl. America's first diplomat coined iconic phrases that live on with us today. Possibly the most famous concerned death and taxes being that they were the only two things certain in life. However, there are a few others. Like the sun rising and setting, as well as the changing seasons. October brings an array of beautiful colors to the trees, just like we see voters moving to Donald Trump this time of year.
As the case in his two previous races as election day neared the polls start to tighten. This journey the American elector
ate undertakes parallels crusaders marching to retake the holy Land. To his base, at least in their minds, this Odyssey they embark on is religious. His hardcore fanatics look at him as some deity.
People either love Donald Trump, or they hate him. There is no in-between. But give the devil his due. Whatever your opinion of him, Donald Trump is a rockstar. Wherever he appears, "The Donald" will draw a crowd. Trump is one of the greatest entertainers to ever get on stage. But perhaps there's more.
Maybe after the initial shock Trump gave Americans when he began his presidential bid in 2015, the electorate became numb to his antics. And as election day drew closer, people aligned with his policies more so than him. Stands to reason.No other candidate in political history ever got away with the things Donald Trump has, yet here he is in a dead heat going down the stretch seeking the presidency for the third time. There is something about the man. Yet there is one stark difference that jumps out at me this time that few people are noticing.
Donald Trump's poll numbers never reached this high in his two previous races. Not only did he never lead National polls in most battlegrounds he never even sniffed the margin of error. Now he's either ahead or tied nationally. And he is up in 6 out of seven battleground states. Although lower than his negatives, his positives are at an all-time high. According to RealClearPolitics, he's trailing Kamala Harris by 1.5%. Comparatively, on this day in history, he lagged behind Joe Biden by nine points and Hillary Clinton by seven, and Kamala Harris is underperforming both. The missing ingredient that should have the Harris campaign panicking is Donald Trump over performs the polls.
In 2016, he over-performed by 5%. In 2020, he over-performed by 3%. If history is any indicator, and I don't see why it wouldn't, Donald Trump is going to overperform by 4%. He had better performances in battlegrounds. In.2020, Trump over-performed by 8% in Wisconsin.
That math has Trump winning the popular vote by 2.5%. If "The Donald" carries the popular vote by 2.5%, half the nation will go to bed mourning by 8:00 pm central when the networks call the race, and the other half will go to bed after Donald Trump's victory speech. And the few that's left, us political nerds, will be up at 2:00 a.m. waiting to see if California goes red.
Christopher M Peeks
Reporter and Columnist
Alabama Political Contributorx ex
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