By Christopher M Peeks October 10th, 2024
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The latest series of surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University has unveiled significant changes in the political environment, especially in the Rust Belt states crucial to Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. The polls, carried out from Oct. 3-7 and released on Wednesday, suggest that President Donald Trump is gaining ground, even taking a slight lead in Michigan.
Key Discoveries from the Polls
In a theoretical head-to-head match-up, Harris is ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, with 49 percent backing compared to 46 percent for Trump. Conversely, Trump is leading by 3 percentage points in Michigan, securing 50 percent as opposed to Harris’ 47 percent. The competition in Wisconsin is extremely close, with Trump at 48 percent and Harris at 46 percent, well within the margin of error.
These outcomes raise concerns for Democrats as Harris’ advantage seems to be diminishing in critical battleground states as the election approaches. In a previous Quinnipiac poll conducted in mid-September, Harris was leading in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, with the race essentially tied in Wisconsin.
President Trump is set to hold two campaign events in Pennsylvania on Wednesday, further highlighting the significance of the Rust Belt in this electoral cycle.
Updates on Issues and Senate Races
According to the Quinnipiac poll, Trump is ahead of Harris across all three states on the economy and immigration, consistent with the previous month’s results. However, Harris maintains an advantage on upholding democracy in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as on the issue of abortion across all three states.
Notably, Democrats have observed a decrease in support in the Senate race in Michigan, which is now deadlocked. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are both polling at 48 percent among likely voters, a shift from Slotkin’s 5-point lead in September. Despite this setback, Democrats still lead in the Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where popular incumbent Democratic senators currently hold the positions.
Additional Insights.
Another recent poll, the Cook Political Report’s Swing State Project surveys, showed Harris leading by a narrow margin of 1 to 3 points in five battleground states, all well within the margin of error. In North Carolina, Harris and Trump were neck and neck.
The Quinnipiac polls surveyed 1,412 likely voters in Pennsylvania, 1,007 in Michigan, and 1,073 in Wisconsin, with margins of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, 3.1 percentage points, and 3 percentage points, respectively.
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