By Christopher M Peeks October 9th,2024
A new national poll conducted by ActiVote between October 3 and October 8 shows a significant change in the presidential race, with former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1.2 percentage points.
Trump's rapid advancement has seen him overturn a 5.4-point deficit within a mere three-week span. The surveys, encompassing 1,000 likely voters each, come with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Trump's current lead in this poll signifies his first national advantage since September 22, when a Quinnipiac University study placed him marginally ahead when factoring in third-party candidates. Subsequent surveys have depicted Harris leading Trump by as much as 7 points.
Although
Harris maintains a lead in the national popular vote, the election's trajectory heavily relies on the outcomes in pivotal swing states. Polls indicate Harris leading by 1 to 2 points in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump sustains slight leads in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.
In Pennsylvania, a critical state with 19 Electoral College votes, the race presently stands at a tie. FiveThirtyEight's projections suggest Harris may secure victories there, as well as in Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, potentially clinching triumph with 277 electoral votes.
Nonetheless, the competitive landscape of the race in these battleground states leaves the outcome uncertain, potentially setting the stage for the tightest presidential contest in nearly a century and a half.
Christopher M Peeks
Reporter and Columnist
Alabama Political Contributor
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